England’s 3-0 win over West Indies on Sunday has earned them third-highest points in the World Test Championship 2023-25. However, despite having fewer points than only Australia and India, Ben Stokes’ men occupy the sixth position on the table, just below Pakistan. This owes to the penalty points they have accrued thanks to slow over rates. But it’s not about England at the moment. It’s about the other two red-ball cricket giants who, unperturbed by what’s happening with the remaining teams in the World Test Championship, are heading towards another potential WTC Final.
India currently reside at the top of the table with Australia following closely behind. It’s almost certain that one of these big guys will make it to the final. What needs to be worked out is whether we will have a sequel to the WTC 2021-2023 final. Although such a situation is very likely, there is one killjoy in this scenario: the Border-Gavaskar Trophy, which is scheduled to be played down under in November and December this year.
The series can probably take one of these teams out of the equation. A 5-0 loss would be the most straightforward path to doom. However, you can’t expect Australia to endure that humiliation on their own turf and India to go winless in one of the country’s most anticipated bilaterals.
For India, even before the 5-match Test series against Australia begins, they have two home red-ball series against New Zealand and Bangladesh which will see the men in blue play five Test matches before heading to Australia. Now, if you have watched India play so much as a single Test match at their home in the past few years, you would know that beating India in India is second only to traveling at the speed of light in terms of feasibility. Assuming that India travels down under after winning at least 4 of these 5 matches, they would only need a solitary win against Australia to get the ticket to the final.
For Australia, however, the maths is more complex. After the BGT, they visit Sri Lanka for a Test series. The last time the Aussies won a Test series hosted by Sri Lanka was 13 years ago. With that record, if Australia had any hopes of the Island country welcoming them with a warm embrace, it should be binned immediately. To reach the final for the second time running, Pat Cummins’ men would need to win at least 4 out of 7 matches they have yet to play.
Does this mean Australia and India are not meeting in the final this time? Not necessarily. If India win their home matches and lose to Australia in the BGT, then both teams will get to reenact the 2023 final. But other teams are here to play as well, no? Of course. While England is hell-bent on actively plotting to ruin the Australia-India date in the final, some dark horses like Pakistan, South Africa, and Sri Lanka can also be counted on to somehow sneak into the contention.
